KAI / Ambiguity Assessment

In visualizing the future, there are four levels of ambiguity:

  • Level one: A clear enough future. The residual uncertainty is irrelevant to making strategic decisions;
  • Level two: Alternative futures. A future that can be described as having one of a few discrete scenarios. While the exact out comes can’t be identified, reasonable probabilities can be established;
  • Level three: A range of futures: While a number of key variables describe the range of outcomes, the actual outcome can’t be determined with any certainty.
  • Level four: True ambiguity. A number of dimensions of uncertainty interact creating an environment that is virtually impossible to predict

Most organizations today are in a Level Three or Level Four state of ambiguity in seeing their businesses’ future. As executives of a company, how we deal with ambiguity will determine how well our organization is to meet the future. Using the Columbia Ambiguity Assessment and Kirton Adaption-Innovation Index (KAI), Innovation Insights helps executives understand their perceptions and concerns regarding the future and prepares them to meet the unknow n using strategy visualization and scenario planning.

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